Election '08

I must say that i feel a mixture of emotions living in the US at this time.Gone are the really juicy gists my cousins freely render of the good ol' days of the 80's and 90's since they arrived here as teenagers and twenty somethings.They understand more than most what catastrophic effect 12 cumulative years of Bush republicanism has had on the american economy.The 1st Herbert Bush was not allowed to fully reck the healthy reagan-omics..thanks to the Clintonian interregnum.

However,it seems the younger Walker Bush was determined to spell out exactly what a Bush clan was capable of doing to a healthy economy.8 straight years won on the back of a dubious war on the pretences of avenging a true injustice coupled with some 2nd term swift-boatism have now ensured whatever this president does in the remaining 4 months in office will not change how posterity judges his tenure.Inheriting billions in budget surplus and leaving your successor with trillions in national debt and $50b trade deficit with your arch-rival for world dominance isn't exactly how to court history.

The democrats learnt a bitter lesson in 2000(Gore) and 2004(Kerry) that playing mummy's boy never really scores with the American people.Scare tactics mixed with an unhealthy dose of war-mongering including the filthiest campaign gimmicks are all fair game..and have worked for republicans historically to no end.It is no coincidence that America has had more republican presidents than democrats.

If Al Gore and John Kerry were allowed to return and run their respective campaigns all over again,each knows exactly what to do differently in order to change the course of history as it now stands.It would be overly simplistic to simply prescribe that Barack sits down with these beacons of Democratic woulda beens to avert suffering a similar fate against McPalin.The problem is that the Republican attack machine is akin to the Influenza virus,it utilizes antigenic shift as well as it does antigenic drift....and no vaccine actually protects 100%.

As the clintons found out however,appearances are patently deceptive when it comes to the Obama campaign.This campaign is run by some of the most insightful and innovative political operatives in modern political history.Everyone concentrates on Barack's charm and appeal without really looking behind the dark curtains..read up on David Axelrod for example(Barack's campaign manager).

I live in Ohio....and we are a battleground state.In 2000 and 2004,Gore and Kerry easily lost the state by ceding the heavily republican suburbs and small towns to Bush and concentrating on the heavily democratic metropolitan cities like Cleveland,Columbus,Cincinnati,Toledo and Akron.What strikes me this year is that Obama has appeared more at smaller towns like Mansfield,Oberlin,Canton and Youngstown than he has at any of the bigger cities.He is fighting McCain bare-knuckle on his own terrace.

What is more worrying,(or at least should be for the McCain campaign) is that those towns are actually very receptive to democrats this year unlike previously.They are the ones that drive the farthest and burn the most gasoline...and $4/gallon is not a joke...what it means these days is if you drive like me to work >10 miles one way daily,you easily equal the value of your monthly car note on gas expences...so the farmers have traded in their ford expeditions and only keep the Tundras because they need the HP for heavy farm work.

The degree of interest in younger voters and college students who overwhelmingly volunteer for Barack also far outweighs anything the republicans can muster.These determined young people have been harrased,abused,even beaten in some racist Ohio enclaves but still keep going back.The direct result of this resilience is the numerous Obama-for-president banners lining residential streets in all nooks and cranies of previously republican safe-bet towns all over rural Ohio.Barack has double the number of overall campaign offices than McCain has in Ohio today.

Those polls you all see on the internet and every night on TV after work (for those of you in Queens country and Bertie's republic) have several pitfalls.The 1st pitfall kinda works against Obama and concerns hidden racial prejudices.However,talking to several Ohioians who traditionally vote republican but plan to vote barack this year,it's pretty clear that though Americans may often be dumb,they are not always as dumb as we think they are.It is pretty clear to anyone living in yankee at this most perilious times that carrying on this way for 4 more months(never mind 4 more years) is simply not an option...so despite themselves,many are having to vote democrat...but only just!
Events of this week have only served to cement that decision if ever there were any doubts.It is a straight forward choice between your racial prejudices and your tattered pockets(plus your home,car,children college tuition,healthcare costs,401k etc).

The second pitfall is in Barack's favor.That is that most existing polls simply don't sample enough of the youtube/myspace/facebook/twitter-addicted Barack voters who overwhelmingly rely solely on cell phones.I fear seriously for McCain after seeing the hordes of Cleveland state University students filing out today to register and vote early on the prompting of the Obama campaign.This was made possible by a late court decision in favor of the democratic Ohio secretary of state despite the protestations of the Republicans.

I don't think even McCain is under any illusions who all those CSU college students are voting for...and they will continue voting all week until voter registration closes on 10/06.Thereafter,everyone will have to wait until 11/04 when millions more around the world will be watching on CNN as the votes are tallied.

As we speak,the incumbent in Canada,Stephen Harper,a staunch Bush paddy,has called emergency elections in that country out of fear that a Barack victory in the south may mean a backlash on him and his chances. Their elections will now hold late October;well before history is made in the U.S. I only wish Gordon Brown had the same prerogative....but it's looking more than likely that he will suffer Thatcher's fate since the rebellion within the Labor party currently shows no sign of a let-off.

Finally,since y'all like polls so much,it might interest you to cast a glance at the yahoonews election '08 political dashboard which is today projecting a winner for the 1st time since this race began.Barack has just crossed the treshold of 270 electoral votes based on all the amalgamated polls across all states.

As far as Palin is concerned,I won't even dignify this former beauty queen wannabe with a whole paragraph...she is dim.This is all I need to envision how a McCain presidency might look like.Belligerent,off-the-cuff,impulsive and unguarded.Everything that Barack isn't.

OMC